The electrification and autonomy of heavy freight, 2019–2026
A heavy truck is not bought because it is exciting. It is bought because it earns money. Fleets care about cost per kilometer, uptime and utilization. That is why electrification and autonomy took longer to reach trucks than passenger cars, and why the market can move quickly once the economics work.
The electric transition is already real, but uneven.
battery-electric share of medium- and heavy-truck sales in China, 2025
Autonomy is at an earlier stage, but its threshold has been crossed.
Aurora driverless trucks in operation, June 2026
The electric transition is already real, but uneven. China is clearly ahead: battery-electric trucks represented almost 30% of medium- and heavy-truck sales in 2025. Europe reached 4.5% for zero-emission trucks above 3.5 tonnes, while the US is still expected to remain below 5% for battery-electric plus hybrid trucks in 2030.
In Europe, the most important change is economics. T&E estimates that electric trucks are already cheaper than diesel over five years in six of the nine major EU markets it analysed. In the Netherlands, for example, the saving is about €100,000 over five years, rising to roughly €123,000 under the diesel-price shock scenario.
Autonomy is at an earlier stage, but its threshold has been crossed. Aurora began commercial driverless operations in Texas on 30 April 2025. By June 2026 it reported about 440,000 driverless miles and around 20 trucks in operation, with a target of more than 200 by year-end and 30,000 by 2030. The challenge now is not proving that a truck can drive itself. It is proving that the model can scale.
That is the central tension of the whole story: technology is becoming credible faster than the business model becoming more mature.
The electric truck story can now be read as a simple progression: first the announcements, then the first deliveries, then the first real products. Each phase has also exposed a different weakness in the market.
Between 2019 and 2021, manufacturers set ambitious roadmaps while start-ups attracted large amounts of capital. Traton increased investment, Volvo and Scania committed to electric ranges, Mercedes introduced the eActros LongHaul, and Nikola reached the public market through a SPAC. The 2021 T&E study was already arguing that electric was close to diesel on cost.
The next phase brought the first serious deliveries and the first failures. Volta Trucks raised €230 million in February 2022. Volvo secured major orders; Renault opened its heavy electric range for orders. Then the market turned off. Nikola cut 23% of its workforce in 2023 and Volta filed for bankruptcy in October 2023 after raising $390.9 million.
Commits billions to e-mobility
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Goes public via SPAC, opening the 2020–21 capital wave
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Unveils the eActros LongHaul: long-haul enters OEM roadmaps
Category: Product & technology.Pledges to electrify its entire line-up
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Study: electric trucks close to cost parity with diesel
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Closes a €230M round, the peak of European e-truck start-up funding
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Receives a record electric-truck order from Maersk
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Opens its heavy electric range for orders
Category: Product & technology.Starts Semi deliveries, first to PepsiCo
Category: Product & technology. Key milestone.Cuts 23% of its workforce
Category: Failures & retrenchment.40-tonne eActros 600 drives 1,000 km with a single charging stop
Category: Product & technology.Files for bankruptcy after raising $390.9M
Category: Failures & retrenchment. Key milestone.Puts its first electric semis into freight operations
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Files for Chapter 11; peak market value was ~$26–30B in 2020
Category: Failures & retrenchment. Key milestone.Raises a $160M Series C co-led by FedEx
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Shuts down amid financial woes
Category: Failures & retrenchment.Launch new electric trucks for North America
Category: Product & technology.Semi's first truck rolls off the high-volume production line
Category: Product & technology. Key milestone.Confirms an 822 kWh battery for the Semi
Category: Product & technology.Tesla Semi challenger reported to be missing paychecks and a truck
Category: Failures & retrenchment.Deploy 47 battery-electric trucks on a shared pilot corridor
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Receives its first eActros 600 trucks in Germany
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Brings the ETT 44 to Europe: 600 km range, 20-minute charge
Category: Product & technology. Key milestone.Starts production of the FH Aero Electric
Category: Product & technology. Key milestone.Announces a battery solution for 720 km of range
Category: Product & technology.FedEx orders 2,000 electric trucks in a $300M deal
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.By 2024–2026, the discussion had shifted from whether electric trucks could work to what the best commercial product would look like. Mercedes demonstrated a 40-tonne eActros 600 over 1,000 km with one charging stop. Tesla moved the Semi into high-volume production with an 822 kWh battery. BYD brought the ETT 44 to Europe with 600 km of range and a 20-minute charge. Scania announced a 720 km battery solution, while Volvo moved the FH Aero Electric into production. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers began to compete more directly on price: T&E puts a Chinese-built electric truck at about €210,000 versus €265,000 for a comparable European model.
€55,000 gap · the Chinese-built truck is about 21% cheaper
So, the question is changing. The issue is no longer whether electric trucks can replace diesel in principle. It is where the economics are already better, how quickly infrastructure catches up and how much pressure lower-cost Chinese products put on established manufacturers.
Autonomous trucking followed a more dramatic path. In 2019–2021, the sector was full of pilots, partnerships, and public-market excitement. Starsky Robotics was already testing uncrewed trucks in 2019. TuSimple, Aurora, Embark, Plus, Kodiak and Gatik all worked with major carriers. TuSimple raised $1.35 billion in its 2021 IPO, while Embark and Aurora reached the public markets through SPAC deals.
Then the model was tested by reality. Embark went from a $5 billion SPAC valuation to a sale for about $71 million in 2023. Waymo paused its trucking programme. TuSimple closed its US operations. These were not failures of the concept alone. They were failures of timing, capital intensity, commercial scale, or some combination of the three.
These were not failures of the concept alone.
From the analysis
Buys a stake in Torc Robotics
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Runs the first uncrewed truck at highway speed (55 mph)
Category: Product & technology. Key milestone.Shuts down after failing to find a buyer or investors
Category: Failures & retrenchment.Waymo Driver is to power Daimler trucks
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Partner on autonomous transport solutions
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.IPO raises $1.35B, peak of the AV-trucking capital cycle
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Announces a SPAC deal at a $5.2B valuation
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Lists on Nasdaq via SPAC, ~$1.8B gross proceeds
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Sell 100 self-driving trucks to DHL
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Completes its first driverless run on public roads
Category: Product & technology.Pauses its trucking programme
Category: Failures & retrenchment. Key milestone.Sold to Applied Intuition for ~$71M, about 1% of its SPAC valuation
Category: Failures & retrenchment. Key milestone.Wins its first autonomous trucking licence in Guangzhou
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Winds down its US operations
Category: Failures & retrenchment. Key milestone.Sign a long-term driverless truck deal after a pilot
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Begin autonomous truck operations
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Partner on the Volvo VNL Autonomous
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Launches commercial driverless operations in Texas
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships. Key milestone.Lists via SPAC
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Completes the world's first autonomous border crossing
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Announces a SPAC with Legato at a $1.8B valuation
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Operates fully driverless trucks at commercial scale
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships. Key milestone.Raises a $750M Series C, the largest private AV-truck round in the set
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.SPAC business combination terminated
Category: Failures & retrenchment.Finalises rules opening the state to heavy-duty autonomous trucks
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Selected by a leading carrier to scale to 500 trucks
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.Targets a $3B autonomous business within five years
Category: Capital, strategy & policy.Launch the first cab-less truck on a German public road
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships. Key milestone.Unveil the Gen-4 robotruck, with European sales targeted
Category: Product & technology.Targets 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030, from about 20 today
Category: Capital, strategy & policy. Key milestone.Picks Dallas–Houston for its driverless long-haul launch
Category: Orders, fleets & partnerships.The more recent phase is different. Partnerships have become more operational, and driverless service has moved onto real freight lanes. Aurora launched commercial driverless operations in Texas in April 2025 and has expanded across Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. Gatik reached fully driverless commercial delivery at scale in January 2026. Kodiak is targeting a driverless long-haul launch with IKEA, while Einride and Lidl deployed a driverless cab-less truck on German public roads in September 2026. Pony.ai is also expanding its robotruck activity in China and targeting Europe.
But the scale gap remains enormous. Around 20 commercial driverless trucks today against a target of 30,000 by 2030 means the industry still must grow by roughly 1,500 times. That is why the next few years matter more than the previous few: the question is no longer whether autonomous trucks can work, but whether operators can deploy them fast enough to make the economics compelling.
The funding history tells a useful story. Autonomous trucking attracted far more disclosed capital than electric trucks in this dataset: about $6.4 billion from 2021 to 2026 versus about $1.3 billion for electric trucks. More than half of the autonomous total came from the 2021 listing wave.
That money created scale, but it also created inflated expectations. Embark went from a $5.2 billion SPAC valuation to a roughly $71 million sale. Nikola reached a peak market value of around $26–30 billion before filing Chapter 11. Volta Trucks failed after raising $390.9 million. TuSimple raised $1.35 billion in its IPO and still exited the US.
Each figure is labelled by what it measures: market value, valuation at listing, capital raised and acquisition price are different things and are not interchangeable.
The more resilient companies are the ones that continued to raise capital while moving toward a real commercial product. Aurora, Kodiak, Waabi, Gatik and Einride all raised, listed or completed a PIPE in 2025–2026. But the lesson is not that funding guarantees survival. It does the opposite: it buys time to prove the model. Partnerships help, but they are not enough on their own. TuSimple had relationships with Traton, Navistar and DHL and still left the US.
Scale 0–50%. Actual = battery-electric share of medium- and heavy-truck sales; target = new-energy heavy-truck penetration.
The market is not developing at the same speed everywhere. China has moved fastest on electric trucks because economics, industrial policy and infrastructure are reinforcing each other. In the first half of 2026, new-energy heavy-truck sales reached about 126,200, up 85% year on year, while China is targeting 40% penetration and 1.6 million new-energy heavy trucks by 2030.
Europe is moving more slowly, but with stronger regulatory pressure. Electric trucks are becoming more competitive on total cost, while the EU is still committed to heavy-duty carbon-dioxide targets of -45% by 2030, -65% by 2035 and -90% by 2040. The problem is infrastructure. ACEA estimates that reaching the 2030 target will require roughly 100,000 new zero-emission trucks a year, around 50,000 public chargers including 35,000 megawatt charging points, and 700 hydrogen stations.
The US is taking a different path. Federal incentives for clean commercial vehicles have been reduced or removed, while the regulatory environment is becoming more open to autonomous trucks. That creates a market where electric adoption can slow even as autonomous freight accelerates. The result is not one global transition, but three different versions of it.
The company map reflects that geography. The US remains the main autonomous cluster, China is the strongest electric market, and Europe sits between the two, with incumbent truck manufacturers and a growing group of start-ups trying to combine electrification, software and autonomy.
Electric and autonomous trucks are not separate stories. The same companies increasingly operate across both layers, and the same customers appear in both ecosystems. Einride has built its proposition around electric and autonomous freight from the start. Volvo is active in both and works with Aurora, Waabi and DHL. Daimler Truck combines electric products with Torc. Pony.ai is developing its latest robotruck with GAC.
This is important because the eventual winner may not be the company with the best battery or the best autonomous software in isolation. It may be the company that can bring the whole system together: vehicle, software, charging, fleet operations, and paying customers.
Six companies tie both revolutions together. Their relationships are drawn in full; every other tie is shown fainter.
The alliance network makes that visible. OEMs remain the industrial anchors, autonomous developers provide the software layer, and shippers and logistics companies provide the routes and the demand. Volvo and Einride are particularly interesting because they sit between several parts of the ecosystem. The recurring customers, including DHL, FedEx, Amazon, Walmart and PepsiCo, also show that the same large fleets are watching both revolutions at once.
The next phase will be judged less by announcements and more by proof.
Can Aurora move from around 20 trucks to more than 200?
Can Kodiak launch a reliable long-haul service?
Can electric trucks keep improving their cost advantage while charging infrastructure catches up?
Can Chinese manufacturers enter Europe at lower prices without turning the market into a race to the bottom?
And can new companies still access public capital after the hangover from 2021?
For fleets, the decision is becoming practical, especially by economics proofs. If these vehicles show a better balance in Total cost of Ownership (TCO) or Total Cost of Management (TCM), operators will look at it and take them as driver of buying. Electric trucks are increasingly a question of route economics and charging availability. Autonomous trucks are increasingly a question of utilisation, labour substitution and whether driverless miles can be scaled reliably. For manufacturers, the challenge is broader: they must manage both transitions while protecting margins and adapting to a market in which software, capital and partnerships matter almost as much as the truck itself.
The simple conclusion is that both revolutions have moved beyond the “will it happen?” stage. Electrification is already commercial in the right market. Autonomy has reached commercial service, but not yet on a commercial scale. The winners of the next cycle will be the companies that can turn technological progress into repeatable economics.